Agricultural Support Policies and China’s Cyclical Evolutionary Path of Agricultural Economic Growth

Due to the weak nature of agricultural production, governments usually adopt supportive policies protect food security. To discern growth agriculture from 2001 2018 under China’s support policies, we use nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p) model distinguish economic cycle into three regimes—rapid, medium, and low—and analyze probability shifts maintenance among different regimes. We further calculated average duration each regime. Moreover, regime transfers for specific times. In this study, find that economy has maintained a relatively consistent trend with proactive policies. However, tends maintain low-growth status in long-term. Finally, make policy recommendations development based on our findings continue existing strengthen agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry.